2010 NHL Free Agent Predictions: Goaltenders

The most exciting part of the off-season is less than two weeks away. On July 1st, all the buildup of where free agents such as Ilya Kovalchuk , Patrick Marleau, and  Anton Volchenkov will be realized. This year features a decent market for forwards and defense, but what is really being overlooked is the goaltending market.

I don’t think I can remember a time where there were so many capable goalies available, as this year we have five goalies who were number ones this season as well as a slew of backups. With a bad economy and teams not wanting to spend as much money as they used to, it will be interesting to see who goes where, because there are way more goalies than spots available.

Over the next week, I will give my predictions, breaking them down by position. I figured to start this year moving from the crease on out. Joe and I will also be on the air sometime next week, most likely before the draft. We will be bringing back Around the NHL, which we have not broadcasted from since the last off-season. If you remember, Joe and I hosted a show on Youcastr called Rangers Radio, from July 2008 to April 2009. That would end when the station went out of business.

Predictions

1. Evgeni Nabokov to the Washington Capitals

“Birds of a feather flock together” is the old saying, and with Washington’s two main catalysts, in Ovechkin and Semin, both being Russian, it would make sense that if Nabokov does not re-sign in San Jose, that he would join his countrymen in Washington. The Capitals had a glorious season last year, but were eliminated from the playoffs by the eighth seed Montreal Canadiens. Since Olaf Kolzig left, this team has desperately needed a number one goalie.

Jose Theodore has been nothing short of a disaster, and Semyon Varlamov is just not ready, despite his record. Nabokov has been known in San Jose and in the Olympics as a player who is not a big game goalie. This is true, and is the reason why he most likely will not be back with the Sharks. But the Capitals will be willing to take that risk, as they have much more at stake.

Unlike San Jose, the bulk of their stars are in their prime, not on the cusp or past it. The Capitals will sign Nabokov to a five-year deal, that will carry them through the primes of Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, and Green.

2. Marty Turco to the Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers have not had a good number one goalie since Ron Hextall. Since then, we have seen Vanbiesbrouck, Cechmanek, Boucher #1, Esche, Niittymaki, Boucher #2, and most recently, Ray Emery. Out of all of those, the one who would carry them the farthest, would be Michael Leighton, a 29-year old minor leaguer.

It would make sense to think that Leighton would re-sign with the Flyers, but the recent trend of free agency has shown career minor leaguers become starters, win games down the stretch, then bolt during the summer for another team, and a boatload of cash. We saw it last summer with Scott Clemmensen of the Devils, and we are going to see in here with Leighton.

The obvious choice for the Flyers to be goalie, would be Marty Turco, a goalie who had fallen out of favor in Dallas after two average seasons. But prior to 2008, Turco was a model of consistency, and is desperately in need of a change of scenery.

The Flyers could be the optimal team for him to be attracted to, as they can boast of one of the hardest hitting defenses in the league, that only got stronger when they acquired the rights to Dan Hamhuis yesterday from Nashville.

I can easily see a two-year deal for the 34-year old Turco.

3. Jose Theodore and Vesa Toskala to Europe

Perhaps there is only one goalie in the league that could have the best offense in front of him since the 1980′s Oilers, go 30-7-7, and still find a way to blow it. That will go to Jose Theodore, who undoubtedly will not return to the Washington Capitals next season after an embarrassing first round exit that was shared between him and Varlamov.

The fact is, teams have not been spending a lot of money on goalies, compared to what they spend on offense and defense. Turco and Nabokov are the only two goalies who will make out well this summer, and with teams looking for cheap, older veterans or young rookies to be their backup, Theodore has no place left in the NHL.

The same can be said for Vesa Toskala who has been brutal since he left San Jose in 2007 and has earned the nickname “ToskaLOL” on the internet forum circuit. It can be attributed to the shoddy defense of the Maple Leafs, but it has taken its toll mentally on him. I do not see there being any team willing to take on Toskala, when any kid in their farm system can come up and play the same way, if not better.

Both of these goalies will head to Europe, most likely Russia, and get paid like kings all while being number one goaltenders. They will each look for one year deals over there, and will hope to return to the NHL next season after a solid year overseas.

4. Chris Mason to the Atlanta Thrashers

When the Blues acquired Jaroslav Halak from the Canadiens the other day, that all but spelled the end for their number one goaltender Chris Mason. The last two seasons have witnessed excellent play from Mason, despite a young and inexperienced team in front of him.

He will be looking for a starting job, and as of right now, there is only team left with a gaping hole at starter. The Thrashers make sense, as do the Sharks if Nabokov bolts for Washington as I predict he will. The two backups for both these teams are Thomas Greiss for San Jose, and Ondrej Pavelec (RFA)  for Atlanta. I think the Sharks will look to go younger and give Greiss the starting job, but the Thrashers will look for stability.

A goalie tandem of Mason and Pavelec going 50/30 for the season could work out well. Atlanta’s defense will also be much better this season, and such a young corp could be attractive to Mason.

5. Martin Biron to the New York Rangers

Joe and I have been saying this since last season, that the Rangers would have an interest in Biron. Henrik Lundqvist needs a backup who can play twenty games and also push him to play better during the middle of the season, when Lundqvist usually tends to slump.

Biron has been a starter in the past and could be a reliable backup that the Rangers would trust over Chad Johnson or Alex Auld. The Rangers would give him a one year deal so Johnson could get an extra year in the minors to be ready for next season.

Other signings:

6. Dan Ellis to re-sign with Nashville

7. Michael Leighton to Dallas

8. Ray Emery to Edmonton, or back to Europe

9. Patrick Lalime to Montreal

10. Johan Hedburg to New Jersey

11. Alex Auld to San Jose

Greg’s 2010 NHL Playoff Predictions

It’s that time of year again, when everyone loves hockey! The playoffs have finally come and although my team is not in it, I am still excited it. Most of us do playoff pools and pick ‘ems, and let me tell you, it is so much easier to do it when your team is no longer playing, because you can finally pick with your brain and not your heart. I have attached my picks for all four rounds, but only in-depth explanations for the first round.

When I look at all the teams who have made it to this year’s post-season, I see no runaway team; no team that really scares me. Two seasons ago it was obvious that Detroit was going to win, and last season it was obvious that Detroit would return to the finals, and Pittsburgh would give them a run for their money, when they eventually ended up winning.

People ask me, how can I say that? The answer is simple: this year, every team in the running has one fatal flaw, the one thing that will ultimately do them in. This year is a crap-shoot, and that is why my predictions for who is in the finals, and who eventually wins may come as a surprise.

Eastern Conference Round One

1) Washington vs 8 ) Montreal: Capitals in 4

Although I do not feel that the Washington Capitals will win the Stanley Cup, the NHL’s best team will have no trouble dismantling the Montreal Canadiens one piece at a time. Montreal had been struggling of late, and the Capitals have never taken their foot off the accelerator. It can be argued that Jaroslav Halak is a better goaltender than Jose Theodore, but with Washington’s offense it will not matter. If the Canadiens even win a game, and furthermore, take the lead in a game, consider it a success for them. But the Capitals will not go all the way because of their goaltending and defense, their fatal flaws. Scoring five goals a game is all fun and good in the regular season, but the playoffs are a different animal. I also do not feel that certain Capitals players are mature enough to handle a trip to the finals.

2) New Jersey Devils vs 7) Philadelphia Flyers: Flyers in 7

It was in November when I predicted the Devils would win the Stanley Cup, but that came with one stipulation; a well-rested Martin Brodeur. Unfortunately his selfishness will do him and his team in again as he will be too tired to defeat the Flyers who will continuously crash the net and wreak havoc. Just think, Martin Brodeur is less than a month away from his 38th birthday, and he appeared in 77 games. Did he really have to play in that final game against Buffalo on Sunday? They could have easily given that game to Yann Danis, and if they lost, so be it. But anyway, the Devils play the tightest defense in the entire league, and when all other teams tighten up for the playoffs, the Devils are already as tight as they can possibly be. The Flyers have question marks all over the place, but I firmly believe if they play at the height of their physicality, they will wear out the Devils and out-score them. It will not be easy, and that is why I think it will go seven games.

3) Buffalo Sabres vs 6) Boston Bruins: Sabres in 5

The Boston Bruins limped into this year’s playoffs with injuries extrapolating their already weak offense. Buffalo continues to remain consistent season after season, and with a healthy Thomas Vanek on fire, along with the best goaltender in the Eastern conference, Ryan Miller, they should have no problems beating the Boston Bruins. Only question is, who gets the starts in Boston? The tenured and experienced Tim Thomas, or the young, bolt of lightning in a bottle Tuuka Rask? Either way, it will not matter, and the Sabres should win easily in five games.

4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs 5) Ottawa Senators: Penguins in 5

Hats off to the Senators for even being able to make the playoffs, a team that was surrounded by a media circus all season long due to Dany Heatley, and a team, who at one point in the season, had their entire top line injured. They had been one of the hottest teams in the league for a while, but Pittsburgh is still the team to beat in the east, and as painful as it is, I do not think the Senators stand a chance.

Eastern Conference Round Two

Washington Capitals vs Philadelphia Flyers: Capitals in 6

Buffalo Sabres vs Pittsburgh Penguins: Penguins in 5

Eastern Conference Round Three

Washington Capitals vs Pittsburgh Penguins: Penguins in 6

This will be the NHL’s dream matchup, and their ticket to financial success and the expansion of hockey popularity across the United States. If the stars align perfectly, this will be the matchup. Although Pittsburgh was not as good during the season, they have a much better goalie in Fleury and a better defense as well. Add to that their Cup-winning experience, and I think they will defeat the mighty Capitals.

Western Conference Round One

1) San Jose Sharks vs 8 ) Colorado Avalanche: Sharks in 5

The Sharks have been a source for endless jokes among us hockey writers over the years because it is absolutely hilarious to see a team consistently win 45-50 games every year, only to lose in the first round. However, their fortunes will change this season, somewhat. As good a season as the Avalanche had, they will not be able to match the Sharks’ firepower, and even if Nabokov is not a big game goalie, I certainly feel he can out-duel Craig Anderson, a goalie who had a career year. Under the leadership of Rob Blake, and the scoring of Marleau and Heatley, the Sharks should easily beat the Avalanche.

2) Chicago Blackhawks vs 7) Nashville Predators: Blackhawks in 6

For many people, Chicago is the team to beat this season. To that, I ask why? Yes they have an amazing tandem of Kane and Toews, but their goaltending will be their fatal flaw. Cristobal Huet has never impressed me, ever, and Antti Niemi has no experience at all. However, they have enough skill level to defeat the surprisingly steady Nashville Predators. Once again I find myself congratulating Barry Trotz for the job he has done with a team that many people don’t even know exists. As much as I would like to see them do well, they will not beat Chicago.

3) Vancouver Canucks vs 6) Los Angeles Kings: Canucks in 6

Few teams were able to match the excitement and exuberance of the Kings this season, but they are in the same learning process the Penguins were in a few years back. There is that old saying that you have to lose before you can win, and for that reason, I feel they will lose out. That, and the fact that I love the system the Canucks are playing. They have a very solid defense, and an excellent offensive pressure. Right now it seems the Sedin twins will be unbeatable, and Kesler and Burrows provide some good toughness with an offensive flair.

4) Phoenix Coyotes vs 5) Detroit Red Wings: Red Wings in 5

First off, let me start out by saying congratulations to Dave Tippett, for the job he did in Phoenix this season. He will win the Jack Adams Award for coach of the year, and deserves it more than anyone else. The job that Don Maloney was also able to do is outstanding. However, now that it is playoff time, I feel this Cinderella season will be coming to an end. The Wings are a group of battle hardened veterans who could win a playoff game in their sleep. With back to back finals appearances under their belt, I feel they will be going far this season. Chris Osgood is a mediocre regular season goalie, but he just turns on another switch in the playoffs. They struggled all season long but got hot at just the right time. Will they have enough gas left in the tank? That seems to be the only problem.

Western Conference Round Two

San Jose Sharks vs Detroit Red Wings: Red Wings in 5

Chicago Blackhawks vs Vancouver Canucks: Canucks in 7

Western Conference Round Three

Vancouver Canucks vs Detroit Red Wings: Red Wings in 6

Stanley Cup Finals

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Detroit Red Wings: Red Wings in 7

As I stated earlier, there is not one team in this league that will run away with anything this year. There are weak spots all over the place in every team. These may seem like “safe” picks, but believe me, a lot of thought went into this because it is almost comical to think that we could see a third straight Red Wings-Penguins finals. But when you don’t see a runaway team, you have to go with the team to beat from last season, and that is exactly what I did. Both teams are experienced and skilled beyond belief. It will be yet another hard fought series, and I see the Wings reclaiming the title.